We're part way into March, in the midst of what will surely be an interesting first quarter for Manhattan Beach real estate, once all the data come in. But we wanted to take a look back at how things shaped up toward the end of 2024. We saw many signs throughout the year of '24 being a recovery year, or at least the beginning of one. How did that all work out in terms of sales? The fourth quarter of 2024 saw 88 closed sales, just one short of the median over 17 years (89). That is basically "normal." And normal is what was missing for a couple years before. Look at those ghastly totals for 2022 and 2023, with 66 and 52 sales, respectively. Only once was a Q4 worse than 2023's, and that was the bubble-bust Q4 of 2008. As we know from other data (like here), 2023 overall was the most woeful year for which we have any data. (We don't have reliable MLS totals pre-2008.) But 2024 roared back, and it wasn't really the first parts of 2024 where that recovery was evident. It was mostly in Q4. That's the momentum that was pushing our market even before January took off like a rocket with additional, high-dollar sales in the wake of the tragic L.A. county wildfires. The point of all this is, if (when?) Q1 '25 shows us rockin' numbers, it's not purely a result of fire-relocation impacts. This was a trend we saw developing in Manhattan Beach last Summer, as high-end sales seemed to take off (mentioned here). We find all of the data about our local market interesting in light of SoCal, California and national data that are not all quite as rosy. So this post is what we sometimes call "putting a pin in it." We wanted to be sure to have this look back available to reference later. When Q1 comes in, we'll be able to do a little more compare-and-contrast. Suffice it to say, we really do seem to be living (and working) in a bit of a bubble here - and this particular time, we don't mean a housing bubble, but just a protected little universe that has its own happy dynamics regardless of what's going on "out there." Watch for the next installment on this topic as we get a fuller set of data at the end of March.
