The Anvil Group Ltd. Blog Situation Update - Anti-government protests across Iran enter their fourth week

SummaryNationwide protests entered into their fourth week on 7 October, following the death of Mahsa Amini, who activists allege died as a result of police brutality after being arrested by the Guidance Patrol on 13 September for failing to meet Iran's strict dress code.Anger appears to have spiralled beyond women's rights into widescale anti-government protests, with some calling for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to be deposed.Iran's authorities are reported to have initiated a violent crackdown on the protests, mobilising units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the paramilitary Basij Resistance Force.International monitors contend that at least 185 people have been killed as a result of numerous related clashes between security personnel and protesters. Tehran denies this estimate, suggesting the figure is around 60.Tehran has accused the US, Israel and other Western nations of having orchestrated the protests, having so far arrested at least 10 foreign nationals who Iran alleges are agitators.Mass protests should be expected to continue, particularly as security personnel are accused of utilising overtly heavy-handed measures to maintain control.SituationOn 13 September, a 22-year-old Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, was arrested in Tehran by the Guidance Patrol, known for enforcing religious observance and public morality across the country. Amini was apprehended for failing to wear a hijab in accordance with government standards. Authorities confirmed that she had been taken into custody to be "educated". Hours later, however, Amini was taken to Karsa Hospital where she has slipped into a coma, before dying three days later on 16 September.Subsequently, Iranian authorities specified that Amini had been taken to hospital having suffered from an unspecified "heart problem". Three weeks later, on 7 October, Iran's Forensic Medical Organisation (FMO) postulated that, following an investigation, they believed that Amini had died from "underlying diseases" and cerebral hypoxia, which had ultimately led to her collapsing in the police station from multiple organ failure.In contrast to the government's statement, witnesses at the scene of Amini's arrest alleged that members of the Guidance Patrol struck Amini as she was taken into the police van, with further questions being raised as to the authorities' conduct when Amini was subsequently taken to the detention centre. Furthering this, Amini's family have cast doubt on the prescribed version of events given by the Guidance Patrol.Following Amini being taken to hospital on 13 September, activists began to gather outside Karsa Hospital, contending that she had been the subject of police brutality. After her death was announced on 16 September, crowds outside the hospital grew larger, ultimately leading authorities to close roads around Tehran's Argentina Square. In tandem, demonstrations emerged in Amini's hometown of Saqez in Kurdistan Province. As information surrounding Amini's death spread, protests in Tehran and Saqez across the weekend of 17-18 September escalated nationwide. On 7 October, these nationwide protests had entered into their fourth week, with demonstrations now seen in at least 80 major towns and cities, including in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Khuzestan, Razavi Khorasan, Qazvin, Qom, Yazd, Markazi, Kermanshah, Hormozgan, Hamadan, Zanjan, Tabriz, Golestan, and Fars.Common scenes during these demonstrations have included women setting fire to their headscarves, as well as large throngs of protesters chanting slogans denouncing the government and Iran's clerical leadership. Protesters have been heard chanting "death to the dictator" in relation to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whilst numerous depictions of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, were removed from public view and defaced. Moreover, as tensions intensified, police stations, vehicles, and other government property have been set fire to or struck with objects, including stones.In order to regain control, Iran's authorities are alleged to have initiated a violent crackdown on the protests, mobilising units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the paramilitary Basij Resistance Force (BFR). These units, as well as broader police units, are accused of being quick to attack protesters, conducting mass arbitrary arrests and allegedly utilising overtly robust crowd control measures, including tear gas, live ammunition, and heavy weaponry such as artillery. Figures relating to the number of arrests, casualties and fatalities remain disputed. The Iranian government has so far alleged that an estimated 1,200 people have been arrested, and 60 people have been killed. However, monitors, such as the Oslo-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) nongovernmental organisation, postulate that at least 185 people have so far been killed, with thousands more injured or arrested. Road closures are said to remain widespread, with security measures also heightened, particularly in major urban areas.The most notable clash is said to have occurred in the city of Zahedan, located in the Sistan and Baluchestan Province, after Friday prayers on 30 September. Now known as "Bloody Friday", reports articulate that the event marked the deadliest day of the protests so far after security forces fired upon crowds with live ammunition, metal pellets and tear gas, leading to at least 66 people being killed. Amnesty International described the incident as highlighting how Tehran will "stop at nothing to preserve power".Moreover, security personnel have also been accused of utilising their aggressive response to further crackdown on minority groups within the country such as ethnic Kurds, a group whom which Amini belonged to. On 11 October, Kurdish rights group, Hengaw, accused security personnel of utilising heavy weaponry, including "shelling" on neighbourhoods and "machine gun fire", in the city of Sanandai, the capital of Iran's Kurdistan province.Generally, demonstrations have been orchestrated by university students. However, the death of Amini appears to have brought forth broader anti-government sentiments. Evidencing this, on 10 October, more than 1,000 workers at the Bushehr and Damavand petrochemical plants are reported to have gone on strike in response to the ongoing clashes between protesters and security personnel. Whilst the Iranian government have so far denied this, social media looks to show thousands of workers denouncing the actions of the current administration.In response to these allegations, authorities denied responsibility for the protests and subsequent fatalities, instead attributing them to "anti-revolutionary elements" and "rioters" who have been directed to sow internal dissent as part of a larger "plot by the enemy". Further evidencing this, Supreme Leader Ayatollah outlined on 3 October that he believed the "rioting was planned", alleging that "insecurities were designed by America and the Zionist regime, and their employees".Relating to this, on 30 September. Iran's Ministry of Intelligence announced that, since protests began, nine foreign nationals had been arrested as part of a roundup of "agitators" accused of instigating protests. Detainees are said to include Western nationals from Germany, Poland, Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden. However, no evidence was provided to support such accusations, with it remaining unclear as to whether the foreign nationals were within the vicinity of demonstrations as they occurred. Moreover, on 6 October, a video was published by the state-run IRNA news agency, allegedly showing two French citizens being arrested following the ongoing protests in the country. The video purportedly shows the travellers, believed to be associated with France's National Federation of Education, Culture and Vocational Training, confessing to acting on behalf of French security services in instigating protests. An allegation denied by Paris, who postulate that the citizens were forced into a false confession.Secondary impacts also continue to be reported. Notably, the internet monitoring group NetBlocks details ongoing outages nationwide, including disruption to major providers, such as the Telecommunication Company of Iran (TCI). The outages follow Tehran implementing "widespread internet" and mobile network shutdowns in a bid to prevent the proliferation of protests as they began. Moreover, social media and instant messaging platforms appear to have been targeted, with NetBlocks reporting that restrictions applied to them had become "the most severe internet restrictions...since November 2019".In a further example, on 2 October, Tehran announced the closure of the Taftan border crossing with Pakistan. Consequently, it was reported that all trade and pedestrian movement was halted with no details as to when the checkpoint may reopen. It remains possible that further checkpoints may be closed going forward, justified with Iranian security reasoning.Internationally, major protests have been reported across the world in solidarity. Violent confrontations with police were reported to have occurred in London, Paris and Oslo towards the end of September, as demonstrators attempted to march on Iranian embassies within each city, resulting in dozens of injuries and arrests. Rallies have also frequently been seen in Athens, Baghdad, Beirut, Berlin, Brussels, Istanbul, London, Los Angeles, Madrid, Montreal, New York, Paris, Toronto, and Vancouver.Global protests appear to have become more frequent as violence in Iran intensifies. In response, the US and UK announced new sanctions, with a focus upon a number of Iranian officials, including Iran's ministers of interior, communications, as well as the head of the cyber-police force. Exemplifying their targets, Washington outlined that those sanctioned are alleged to all have been directly involved in "violence against peaceful protesters and the shutdown of