The Anvil Group Ltd. Blog Situation Update - On 2 October, Brazilians will head to the polls to determine the country's next president, vice president and National Congress

SummaryBrazil is scheduled to hold its presidential and general election on 2 October. If no candidate secures the 50% required for an outright win, a second round will be held between the two highest polling candidates on 30 October.Prominent topics include the economy, gang violence and the environment. However, whilst campaigning, corruption has emerged as a major topic for both sides. In the run up to the election, political violence has already been seen with supporters of both incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva having been injured or even killed as a result. Further violence cannot be ruled out.According to the most recent polls, Lula is expected to win the presidential election although it remains unclear as to whether a runoff would be required. Concerns remain that if defeated, Bolsonaro may challenge the result having hinted the elections may not be transparent ever since falling behind in the opinion polls. Mass political demonstrations should be anticipated in the run up to the election, carrying the potential for civil unrest in the wake of the election result being announcedSituationOn 2 October, Brazilians will head to the polls to determine the country's next president, vice president and National Congress, in elections deemed significant at a time of deep political division in Brazil. Whilst the country is voting for both its executive and legislature, the general importance of the president within Brazil's political system, combined with a wider potential shift away from incumbent, populist, right-wing leader President Jair Bolsonaro, has meant that the candidate that becomes the next president could have a significant impact on the future of the country.Whilst there are a number of candidates still in the running for the presidency, only two candidates appear to be polling at a position in which they could win office. Incumbent President Bolsonaro and his nationalist right-wing Liberal Party (PSL), which is currently the largest party in the National Congress, is being challenged by former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula, who is a founding member of the left-wing Workers' Party (PL). In the most recent polls released by the IPEC on 25 September, Lula is set to receive 47% of the vote, compared to just 31% for Bolsonaro, continuing a trend which has seen the former president continue to strengthen his position as the election draws nearer. Highlighting the dominance of Bolsonaro and Lula, the next highest polling candidate is member of the Democratic Labour Party, Ciro Gomes, with just 7% of the vote.Brazil operates a two-round majority run-off system. Consequently, on 2 October, if none of the presidential candidates are able to achieve 50% of the vote, a second round will be held on 30 October for the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round. If recent polls prove accurate, however, the result will see Lula sit just short of the required threshold to achieve an outright victory on 2 October, leading to the runoff.Political tensions have continued to mount throughout 2022 but, following the official launch of Bolsonaro and Lula's election bids at the end of July, as well as the start of the official lobbying period on 17 August, recent months have seen a wave of political campaigning, rallies, and protests across Brazil which is expected to continue until the election day and beyond.Whilst core topics for the electorate appear to surround the country's economy, gang violence, and the future of the Amazon, political rhetoric from both sides continues to focus upon allegations of corruption and spreading of disinformation against Bolsonaro and Lula, as well as the country's political institutions. This was most vehemently evidenced on 7 September when President Bolsonaro appeared to utilise Brazil's Independence Day celebrations to bolster his re-election bid, appealing to his broad base of nationalist supporters. In a speech to the crowds, the president said that "our battle is a fight between good and evil", denounced current polls as "a lie" and said that supporters should be prepared to resist the "cheating of our population". Small counter-protests were also recorded in Rio de Janeiro, organised by a group called the "Cry of the Excluded", although no major civil unrest was reported.Emphasising this more recently, on 20 September, following a recent release of IPEC polls, Brazil's Minister of Communications Fabio Faria tweeted that the country's "population will call for the closure of this institute [IPEC}" alleging the figures to be "absurd". Faria went on to state that "the moment of truth is coming", appearing to try and cast doubt over any such results on 2 October.In contrast, on 11 August, thousands of Brazilians marched across several cities, including Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Brasilia, amid increasing concern that President Bolsonaro is planning to attempt to remain in power even if he loses the election, following allegations that he has sought to discredit the country's voting system throughout his time in power. It comes as Lula has continuously called on his supporters to "overcome our differences and build an alternative path to the incompetence and authoritarianism that governs us".Such political rhetoric has also led to a wave of politically related violence in Brazil with concerns ongoing that such incidents will only intensify as the election draws nearer. Exemplifying this, on 9 September, in the wake of the Independence Day celebrations, a supporter of Lula was killed by a supporter of Bolsonaro in a violent confrontation in Mato Grosso state. Lula subsequently called for police to investigate whether the attack had been "ordered, or guided, or is it is a political strategy", although no evidence has been presented to support such a claim. On the same day, a Bolsonaro supporter was said to have been assaulted in São Gonçalo, Rio de Janeiro state, by members of the PL.Further notable incidents included the spraying of hundreds of people in a pro-Lula crowd with fetid liquid by a drone in June, whilst in July, a small homemade explosive containing faeces was detonated in the middle of a rally, both in a bid to cause widespread disruption. According to social media sources, the perpetrators in both cases were Bolsonaro supporters, though further details regarding the incidents are limited.Highlighting broad concerns surrounding the hostile environment being forged in the run up to the election, on 22 September, the UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner (UNHCR) outlined that the current atmosphere "represents a threat to political participation and democracy".