The Anvil Group Ltd. Blog Situation Update - US to hold mid-term elections on 8th November

SummaryMid-term elections will include 39 gubernatorial elections, all 435 seats of the House of Representatives and 35 seats of the Senate.The economy remains the most important topic to voters across the US, with the majority having polled in stating they have more confidence in the Republicans to manage the economy.Other important topics include reproductive rights, immigration, crime and democracy.Polls suggest the race to control the Congress remains tight with Republicans currently holding a small percentile lead, although this does not account for individual races for Congress.The turnout is purported to be high with over 40 million Americans having already voted in absence or in person, an outcome which looks likely to benefit the Democrats.The mid-terms represent the first major national elections held since the 2020 presidential election, the latter of which was followed by the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol building in an effort to overturn the results of that election.Protests related to the election are likely to occur in response to results and have the potential to escalate into more violent actions.SituationAs President Joe Biden approaches the halfway mark of his presidential term, on Tuesday, 8 November, his administration will face its first major electoral challenge as the country holds its 2022 mid-term elections for local, state and federal positions. Elections will include 39 governors, all 435 seats within the House of Representatives (HoR) and 35 of the 100 seats of the Senate, with the Democrats currently holding control of sections of the bicameral Congress.Whilst individual races are being run across the board, certain topics have been focused upon by both the Republicans and Democrats respectively. As campaigning came to an end across the weekend, it has offered an insight into how both parties believe they will succeed in taking control of the legislative branch. For the incumbent Democrats, campaigning appears to have focused upon the defence of democratic institutions and democracy, with this election being the first since the attack on the US Capitol building on 6 January 2021. At a rally in Yonkers, New York, on 6 November, President Biden told the rally that "democracy is literally on the ballot", with a number of electoral candidates and workers remaining involved in the electoral process despite having previously claimed that the election had been "stolen" from former President Donald Trump in 2020. Moreover, following the Supreme Court's 1973 Roe v Wade ruling in June, and the consequential restrictions seen in many conservative US states, the Democrats have focused on prioritising reproductive rights, having promised to carve out a filibuster exception if they retain Congressional control.In contrast, the Republicans have looked to the economy as Americans continue to struggle with the rising cost of living seen across the country and the world. With inflation sitting at a 40-year high, An ABC News/ Washington Post poll taken in the last few days outlined that 80% of Americans have called the economy or tackling inflation the most important issues in determining their vote, whilst another poll conducted two weeks prior outlined that more Americans trust the Republicans with the economy and the price of fuel. Consequently, the party has doubled down on their focus on the economy, accusing the Democrats of spending too much and for undermining fuel prices by limiting energy production. Additionally, and as was the case in the 2020 presidential race, immigration also remains a key topic on the docket for the Republicans. As record numbers of migrants and asylum seekers traverse the southern border, Republicans have focused on Biden's allegedly lacklustre immigration policies which fail to secure the border. In a recent bid to draw attention to the matter, in September, Republican governors of Texas, Arizona and Florida have all taken credit for paying to transport migrants to liberal-leaning northern cities, with the Biden administration saying migrants were being used as "political pawns".With absentee and some in-person voting having already begun, with 40 million Americans said to have already voted, polls appear to suggest that the outcome of the election remains extremely tight. According to prominent pollster FiveThirtyEight, the Republicans appear to hold a 1.3-point advantage over Democrats on a generic congressional ballot when citizens were asked which party they would prefer to run Congress as a whole. However, in reality the outcome of the election will come down to which way the most tightly held races will fall. Despite being behind in the polls, Democrats remain hopeful with voter turnout anticipated to be high, with key political decisions such as Roe v Wade having promoted political participation that traditionally falls in their favour.Of the 435 seats in the HoR, most are safely held by either political party, with just an estimated 30 seats open for either side to win. Key battlegrounds are set to include suburban areas around cities in states of Pennsylvania, California, Ohio and North Carolina. Current polls suggest that the Republicans may hold enough of an edge to regain control of the HoR after four years. For the Senate, the election appears likely to come down to pivotal races in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. The Senate is currently controlled by the Democrats as a result of Vice President Kamila Harris being the tie break vote, the slimmest possible majority with the 100-person house split 50-50. The Democrats currently also rely upon two independent candidates who frequently dissent against President Biden. If the Republicans are able to overturn just one seat in the Senate, they will gain control.With the election purported to be so close, tensions appear to be on the rise, feeding into previous suggestions that the presidential election in 2020 was stolen from former President Donald Trump. The potential for violence was most vehemently illustrated on 28 October when the husband of HoR Speaker Nancy Pelosi was assaulted in his home in an attack which authorities believe was looking to target speaker Pelosi. Similarly, on 7 November, authorities announced that they had begun investigating an envelope left in the Phoenix campaign headquarters of Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. Whilst the envelope was cleared to not be a threat, authorities believe the act was intended to intimidate Lake and her campaign staff.